Análisis de la evolución del desempleo en España como serie temporal
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2015-07-06
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Jaén: Universidad de Jaén
Resumen
El objetivo perseguido con la realización de este Trabajo de Fin de Grado es conocer la evolución que ha experimentado el desempleo en España a lo largo de la última década para poder realizar predicciones en un futuro próximo. Y para ello, se empieza explicando el funcionamiento del Mercado de Trabajo, quien lo compone y cuáles son las fuentes que nos proporcionan la mejor información sobre él. A continuación, se elabora una introducción sobre Series Temporales que será necesaria conocer para, posteriormente, llevar a cabo un análisis econométrico de series temporales sobre el desempleo, con el que conseguiremos determinar un modelo que describa de una manera próxima a la realidad su comportamiento futuro. Finalmente, se elaboran las conclusiones en las cuales son detallados e interpretados los resultados conseguidos con el análisis.
The objective pursued with the development of this Final Degree Project is to know the evolution that the unemployment has experienced in Spain over the past decade to make predictions in the near future. And for that, we start explaining the functioning of the Labour Market, who composes it and what are the sources that give us the best information about it. Then, we will elaborate an introduction to time series that will later be useful to know to carry out an econometric analysis of time series on unemployment, to determine a model that describes its future behavior of a way close to reality. Finally, we will elaborate the conclusions where we will expose and explain the results that have been obtained in the analysis.
The objective pursued with the development of this Final Degree Project is to know the evolution that the unemployment has experienced in Spain over the past decade to make predictions in the near future. And for that, we start explaining the functioning of the Labour Market, who composes it and what are the sources that give us the best information about it. Then, we will elaborate an introduction to time series that will later be useful to know to carry out an econometric analysis of time series on unemployment, to determine a model that describes its future behavior of a way close to reality. Finally, we will elaborate the conclusions where we will expose and explain the results that have been obtained in the analysis.